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No such thing as momentum

By: espn.comPosted On: 06/10/2010 1:46 P

If you're trying to determine which team in the NBA Finals will be able to sustain momentum you'd be better off searching for a real-life leprechaun or an actual laker (whatever the heck that's supposed to be).

Momentum is a myth. It doesn't exist in the playoffs. For an example look no further than Ray Allen's 3-point-shooting accuracy, which went from record-breaking in Game 2 to futile in Game 3. If there were such a thing as momentum, how could a man go from an all-time display of marksmanship to a complete inability to put the ball through the hoop in less than 48 hours?

Think about inertia, momentum's cousin in physics. Newton's first law of motion states objects in motion will remain in motion unless acted upon by an outside force (such as friction or gravity). In the playoffs those forces can be venues, crowds, injuries or officials. There are even factors you don't see or consider. Robert Horry once said the reason he was at his best in the playoffs is that he plays better when he's warm. June games meant outlasting most NHL teams, so the ice beneath the courts had been removed.

In the case of Allen, one difference was the better job of switching on screens by Lakers big men Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum, who starting with the second half of Game 2 jumped out on Allen and provided a long-armed impediment to his shots. In-game and between-game adjustments are reasons momentum are so elusive. Notice how the team that got off to the good start in both of the past two games wound up losing? No squad capable of reaching the Finals is going to sit back and allow its opponent to shoot continuous layups throughout an entire game.

If momentum could override everything else then why would people fret about the 2-3-2 format? Some say it's unfair to the team with the better record because it's forced to go a long time between home games. Some say it's unfair to the "lower seed" because it is asked to go on a three-game winning streak in order to hold serve -- and winning three consecutive games at this stage is too much to ask. If momentum existed it would stand to reason that the boost from returning home would spill over to the following two games. Instead, only two teams, the Pistons in 2004 and the Heat in 2006, have won the middle three games at home since the format was adopted in 1985.

Three road teams -- the Pistons in 1990, Bulls in 1991 and Lakers in 2001 -- have won the middle three games, evidence that there is such a thing as negative momentum. When things go bad, or when the shots won't fall, it can compound. Not even the home crowd can be enough to stave off elimination when both sides come to the realization that one team is superior.

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