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Legalization could slash the price of pot 80%

By: latimes.comPosted On: 07/08/2010 2:45 P

California's cash crop could become dirt cheap if the state legalizes marijuana.

Researchers associated with the Rand Corp.'s Drug Policy Research Center said Wednesday that not much is certain about the potential impact of Proposition 19 except that the price of California's choicest weed could plunge more than 80%, down from $300 to $450 per ounce to about $38.

"That's a significant drop," said Beau Kilmer, co-director of the center. "We're very clear about the fact that the price will go down."The implications of such a drop would be profound. Kilmer and four other researchers who analyzed marijuana legalization said consumption would rise, but they could not determine with any certainty by how much. "We cannot rule out increases of 50% to 100% or perhaps higher, but we just don't know," he said.

Such a low price could also affect pot prices across the nation, encourage marijuana tourism in the state, increase the amount of pot shipped out of state, disrupt the smuggling of marijuana from Mexico and stimulate an underground market designed to avoid high taxes that might be imposed.

Rand, the Santa Monica-based nonpartisan research institute, had five prominent drug policy experts spend about six months examining what might happen to marijuana use and tax revenues if Californians approve the measure on the November ballot or the Legislature passes a bill introduced by Assemblyman Tom Ammiano (D- San Francisco) that would legalize pot and impose a $50-per-ounce tax.

The report called "Altered State?" is the most scholarly examination of the issue so far. It is likely to be scrutinized and cited by both sides in the debate.

"The uncertainty and the potential chaotic nature of what could happen here just totally derails this initiative," said Roger Salazar, the spokesman for Public Safety First, one of four opposition committees that plan to fight the initiative. "Outside of the prices going down there is nothing else that is certain here and certainly not worth having the state of California become the first entity in the world to completely legalize production and sales of marijuana."

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